After the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, all eyes are now set on six assembly elections likely to be held between June 2024 and November 2025. Five states – Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Delhi and Bihar will hold assembly elections in the next one year. The assembly election in the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir is expected to be held before September 2024.

Two states will be the most keenly watched among these — Haryana and Maharashtra. The assembly elections in these two states will take place around October this year, just about four months after the Lok Sabha Elections 2024. 

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is currently in power in both these states and hence the elections would be crucial as the ruling  dispensation suffered a set back in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, compared to the 2019 elections.

While the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP’s Mahayuti alliance was jolted by the Maha Vikas Aghadi (INDIA bloc) in Maharashtra, the BJP’s seat share dropped to five from the previously held ten in Haryana.

In the upcoming Maharashtra assembly elections, many see the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections impacting the electoral contest. “The outcome will impact the Vidhan Sabha elections in Maharashtra,” Nationalist Congress Party stalwart Sharad Pawar was quoted as saying by Deccan Herald .

However, there is no credible evidence to suggest Lok Sabha election will have a definite impact in the subsequent assembly polls.

In Delhi, for example, the BJP won all seven seats in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections but lost to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) during the 2015 and 2020 assembly polls. This year too, the BJP won all seven seats in the Delhi Lok Sabha polls, but uncertainty looms over the 2025 assembly elections. 

The assembly elections in Delhi are likely to be held in February 2025. The AAP has maintained that it will contest the Delhi assembly elections without an alliance with the Congress. AAP leader Gopal Rai said  the two parties had come together in Delhi only for Lok Sabha polls.

Similarly, in Jharkhand, the BJP had won the  largest number of seats –11– in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls but lost to the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in the 2019 assembly polls. In the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP won eight seats, while the JMM’s tally rose from one in 2019 to three seats in 2024. The assembly elections in Jharkhand are due in November-December 2024.

Meanwhile, in Haryana, given the political developments and Lok Sabha Election results, the Congress seems to be seeing a resurgence in its electoral prospects ahead of the assembly elections.

The BJP and the Congress secured five seats each in the Lok Sabha Polls. The BJP’s vote share declined from 58 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to 46 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Meanwhile, the Congress’s vote share increased from 28.5 percent to 43.67 percent in the Lok Sabha polls 2024.

The Congress-AAP alliance’s (INDIA bloc partners) vote share was around 1 percent more than the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. According to a Tribune report, the alliance leads in 46 assembly segments compared to the BJP, which leads in 44 segments, going by the voting pattern in the recently concluded LS polls.

Also, recently, three Independent MLAs withdrew their support from the ruling BJP in Haryana, indicating that a crisis is brewing for the state government.

The assembly elections in Bihar are likely in October or November in 2025. Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is currently in power in the state, while being in alliance with the BJP. The JDU-BJP alliance won most of the seats in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 in Bihar.

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) had emerged as the single-largest party, despite the NDA winning the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in the state. 

In Jammu and Kashmir, the government has assured that the assembly elections will be held later this year. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference and the BJP won two seats each and an Independent candidate won the fifth seat.

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Published: 07 Jun 2024, 06:45 AM IST

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